Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
